V13

Private beta

Built for the declines that test every plan

Deep market declines are when long-term plans are most often abandoned. We built V13 to handle those moments with fixed rules instead of judgment calls.

After each U.S. market close, the model looks at how far the S&P 500 (through VOO) is below its recent high and at its own market-risk reading, and sets its S&P 500 exposure between 0% and 100%. It has two goals: avoid the deepest drawdowns, and stay invested enough to grow over the long run. You receive one card that shows where the model stands, why, and what would change its signal next.

See the backtest ↓ Jump to the example card
Largest decline
V13−15.16%
Buy & hold VOO−34.25%
$100,000 became
V13$314,618
Buy & hold VOO$273,276
Full years ahead of the other
V133 of 8
Buy & hold VOO5 of 8

Historical simulation, Jan 2, 2018 – Nov 6, 2026 · daily closes · dividends excluded for both · no costs, taxes or interest on cash · not actual trading. Past or simulated results do not guarantee future results.

Historical backtest

How did V13 compare with buy & hold?

Jan 2, 2018 – Nov 6, 2026 · daily closes · $100,000 start · dividends excluded for both · no costs, taxes or interest on cash

How deep did each one fall?

Decline from each portfolio's own peak. Largest: V13 −15.16% Buy & hold VOO −34.25%

What did $100,000 become?

Portfolio value over the same period. Ending value: V13 $314,618.28 Buy & hold VOO $273,275.60

Where V13 lagged

V13 trailed buy & hold in 5 of 8 full years (2018, 2019, 2021, 2023 and 2024). Most of the gap came in strong, steady rallies: after a decline the model waits for both a price recovery and a LOW market-risk reading before returning, so it can miss part of a fast rebound. It was ahead in 2020, 2022 and 2025, years with deep or sharp declines.

V13 minus buy & hold, by calendar year (percentage points):

Comparison assumptions

    View Full Backtest →

    How it works

    1. After each U.S. market closeThe model reads VOO's close against its recent high, and its market-risk reading.
    2. Fixed rules set the exposureThe same rules, every day, set the model's S&P 500 exposure between 0% and 100%.
    3. One card explains itWhere the model stands, why the signal is active, and what would change it next.

    See how to read a V13 signal

    Historical example · Nov 6, 2026 close · not a current signal

    Choose a numbered part of the card, or start the walkthrough.

    1. The model's market-risk reading: LOW or HIGH. The squares show how far along that reading is. In this example it is HIGH.

    2. The model's S&P 500 exposure, from 0% to 100%, and since when it has held. Here: 0%, unchanged since Nov 5, 2026.

    3. The event that set the current allocation, with its prices and dates. Here: on Nov 5, VOO's daily close fell below the model's sell level.

    4. The conditions the model is waiting for. Here: VOO closing above $685.76 together with a LOW risk reading (both are required), or the model's dip conditions being met.

    5. The market close the card is based on, and when it was produced. It is model output, the same for every member, and does not consider your situation.

    How to use the daily card

    1. Check the data date: the card covers the latest U.S. market close and is published after it.
    2. Read the model's market-risk reading and S&P 500 exposure, and since when that exposure has held.
    3. Read why the signal is active and which conditions could change it next.

    Members see the current card after they log in. Log in for the current card