Historical backtest
V13 backtest: results and methodology
A historical simulation of the V13 model's rules against buying and holding VOO, on the same prices, dates and starting capital: Jan 2, 2018 – Nov 6, 2026, $100,000 each. It is not actual trading, and past or simulated results do not guarantee future results.
Drawdowns and growth
How deep did each one fall?
Decline from each portfolio's own peak. Largest: V13 −15.16% Buy & hold VOO −34.25%
What did $100,000 become?
Ending value: V13 $314,618.28 Buy & hold VOO $273,275.60
Full-period summary
Year by year
V13 trailed buy & hold in 5 of 8 full years (2018, 2019, 2021, 2023 and 2024), mostly strong, steady rallies: after a decline the model waits for both a price recovery and a LOW market-risk reading before returning, so it can miss part of a fast rebound. It was ahead in 2020, 2022 and 2025, years with deep or sharp declines.
* The first year starts at the backtest's first close. A year's maximum drawdown is measured within that year only. The last row is year-to-date.
Methodology
What the model does
After each U.S. market close, V13 applies fixed rules to two inputs: how far VOO's close is below its highest close of the last 252 trading days, and the model's own market-risk reading (LOW or HIGH). The rules set the model's S&P 500 exposure to 0%, a partial level, or 100%. The same rules apply every day and give the same signal to every member.
Comparison assumptions
Limitations
- One market, one period: about nine years of S&P 500 history, with its own mix of declines and rallies.
- The rules and their settings were chosen with this history available, so a simulation can look better than live results.
- Real results also depend on when and how someone acts on a signal, their costs and their taxes.